FAIRFX

The FairFX Foreign Currency Exchange Blog

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The US dollar has advanced against various currencies over the last several months, a significant portion of this move has been from deleveraging from emerging market assets and other higher risk investments into funding currencies. Analysts now confirm these flows have been fading. This has seen the dollar lose ground against its major rivals.

The FOMC started its two day meeting today which will finish tomorrow, policy makers are expected to release their official forecasts for the economy. Interest rates are expected to stay the same.

Tuesday 17 March 2009, 04:07pm

Sterling was sold against the Euro, US dollar and other major currencies as traders and market participant shorted on a delayed reaction to UK banking issues and the introduction of quantitative easing. Against the dollar sterling crashed to a six week low trading down to $1.3740. Against the Euro a similar story, the pound traded down to €1.0879.

The Bank of England will begin its purchase programme on Wednesday with a £2 billion auction for gilts. Although the bank has capped the amount it plans to spend in the coming year at £150 billion, the governor has conceded it could go far beyond this target if necessary.

Tuesday 10 March 2009, 12:46pm

The bank of England cut rates by 50 basis points, leaving the base rate at 0.5% its lowest ever. Leading up to the rate decision sterling began to feel the pressure against the Euro and US dollar after trading at a high of 1.1283 and 1.4234 respectively, this afternoon the selling has continued. The central bank has also agreed to push ahead with quantitative easing with an amount of £75bn in assets, printing money to fight the recession.

Thursday 05 March 2009, 12:44pm

Sterling was sold aggressively yesterday against the Euro and US dollar. UK mortgage lending plunged by 60% during January. The FTSE 100 dropped 5.33% to its lowest level since March 2003 as HSBC shares crashed 19%. The pressure was on sterling from every angle, risk-aversion ruled the day rallying the greenback as the “Safe haven” currency.

Market participant are beginning to speculate on the up and coming interest rate decision, talk of a shift towards quantitative easing is keeping the pressure on the pound.

Tuesday 03 March 2009, 12:29pm

The pound was sold against the US dollar and the Euro as UK house prices dropped along with a decline in stocks. UK banks have been adding to the pressure on house prices as they grant fewer mortgages.

This week the Bank of England is once again expected to reduce its bench mark interest rate. Economists expects rates to be cut to 0.5%. The central bank may also signal intent to boost the money supply by 100 billion pounds via quantitative easing.

Monday 02 March 2009, 12:50pm

The Bank of England’s MPC collectively agreed that quantitative easing should be used in conjunction with rate cuts. The governor has acknowledged that with interest rates approaching zero percent, the central bank will be forced into creating money to kick-start the economy in order to prevent inflation from falling too far below the governments 2% target. The government has given the Bank of England the mandate to begin buying commercial paper from struggling companies under a programme financed by the sale of government securities.

After being sold during the early part of last week, sterling has bounced back as the pressure increases on the Euro from all sides. The pound is currently trading at 1.13 against the Euro.

Against the US dollar, sterling is beginning to form a range as it fails to break below the 1.41 level. Towards the end of January sterling traded at 1.35 against the US dollar, the pound then rallied up to 1.4986. Sterling is currently trading at 1.42 against the US dollar.

Wednesday 18 February 2009, 03:19pm

Yesterday sterling tested new highs for this year against the Euro above the 1.1550 level. The pound was then sold aggressively, the momentum has continued to have carried over to today currently testing the 1.11 region.

A similar story against the US dollar, on Monday the pound traded within touching distance of $1.5 level. Yesterday traders begun to sell sterling aggressively, today cable is trading back down in the 1.4350 region.

The US Treasury revealed a $1.5 trillion dollar bank bailout plan yesterday, as the US senate passed a new economic stimulus package, expected to cost $838 billion.

Wednesday 11 February 2009, 12:05pm

As expected the Bank of England, Monetary Policy Committee has cut rate by 50 basis points to 1%. Sterling has rallied on the news, initially the risk was to the down side i.e. a cut of greater than 0.5% was a possibility. Against the US dollar, the pound rallied from $1.45 to over $1.4650. Against the Euro, sterling rallied from 1.1260 to over 1.1380. The pound has finally got the momentum to push through key resistance levels, currently trading at new highs for the year against the Euro.

The Prime Minister has given the central bank powers to spend up to 50 billion pounds on bonds and commercial paper, as cuts in interest rates are failing to revive the economy. In desperation, the bank has now lowered its benchmark interest rate by 4% since October. The fundamentals are still week and there is still scope for other methods of policy easing.

Thursday 05 February 2009, 12:27pm

This afternoon the Bank of England is expected to cut one step closer towards "zero interest rates", a cut of 0.5% is expected. Officials have already resorted to buying assets to stimulate the economy. The rate cut will take interest rates to the lowest level since the committee was founded in 1694. With unemployment rising, the bank is under pressure to cut rates further.

The fundamental issue is the availability of credit not the price of it. The level of saving rates is discouraging to the consumer who has little incentive to save.

The ECB are expected to keep rate on hold at 2%, a cut by the MPC is expected to attract sterling sellers back into the market. The pound is currently trading near to the highs of this year against the Euro. If the bank of England unexpectedly decide to cut rates further than 50 basis points, it is possible we may see a swift move back to lower levels.

Sterling has also been working hard against the US dollar after printing a low late in January at $1.3504. Since then sterling has rallied over 7% against the greenback.

Thursday 05 February 2009, 09:51am

All eyes will be on the Federal Open Market Committee meeting later today. The base rate is already near zero and there is hardly any room for further cuts. Traders will be paying very close attention to the statement.

Since the beginning of the week, sterling has had a good run against the US dollar as risk-appetite re-emerged. Having traded down to a low of $1.35 on Friday, currently the pound is trading at $1.4277. This morning we have seen a high of $1.4329. We have also seen sterling gains against the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Japanese Yen, and against the Canadian Dollar.

Wednesday 28 January 2009, 10:24am

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