The FairFX Foreign Currency Exchange Blog


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Yesterday sterling tested new highs for this year against the Euro above the 1.1550 level. The pound was then sold aggressively, the momentum has continued to have carried over to today currently testing the 1.11 region.

A similar story against the US dollar, on Monday the pound traded within touching distance of $1.5 level. Yesterday traders begun to sell sterling aggressively, today cable is trading back down in the 1.4350 region.

The US Treasury revealed a $1.5 trillion dollar bank bailout plan yesterday, as the US senate passed a new economic stimulus package, expected to cost $838 billion.

Wednesday 11 February 2009, 12:05pm

As expected the Bank of England, Monetary Policy Committee has cut rate by 50 basis points to 1%. Sterling has rallied on the news, initially the risk was to the down side i.e. a cut of greater than 0.5% was a possibility. Against the US dollar, the pound rallied from $1.45 to over $1.4650. Against the Euro, sterling rallied from 1.1260 to over 1.1380. The pound has finally got the momentum to push through key resistance levels, currently trading at new highs for the year against the Euro.

The Prime Minister has given the central bank powers to spend up to 50 billion pounds on bonds and commercial paper, as cuts in interest rates are failing to revive the economy. In desperation, the bank has now lowered its benchmark interest rate by 4% since October. The fundamentals are still week and there is still scope for other methods of policy easing.

Thursday 05 February 2009, 12:27pm

This afternoon the Bank of England is expected to cut one step closer towards "zero interest rates", a cut of 0.5% is expected. Officials have already resorted to buying assets to stimulate the economy. The rate cut will take interest rates to the lowest level since the committee was founded in 1694. With unemployment rising, the bank is under pressure to cut rates further.

The fundamental issue is the availability of credit not the price of it. The level of saving rates is discouraging to the consumer who has little incentive to save.

The ECB are expected to keep rate on hold at 2%, a cut by the MPC is expected to attract sterling sellers back into the market. The pound is currently trading near to the highs of this year against the Euro. If the bank of England unexpectedly decide to cut rates further than 50 basis points, it is possible we may see a swift move back to lower levels.

Sterling has also been working hard against the US dollar after printing a low late in January at $1.3504. Since then sterling has rallied over 7% against the greenback.

Thursday 05 February 2009, 09:51am

All eyes will be on the Federal Open Market Committee meeting later today. The base rate is already near zero and there is hardly any room for further cuts. Traders will be paying very close attention to the statement.

Since the beginning of the week, sterling has had a good run against the US dollar as risk-appetite re-emerged. Having traded down to a low of $1.35 on Friday, currently the pound is trading at $1.4277. This morning we have seen a high of $1.4329. We have also seen sterling gains against the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Japanese Yen, and against the Canadian Dollar.

Wednesday 28 January 2009, 10:24am

Last week was yet another tough week for Sterling, the pound continued its collapse against the US dollar and was also under pressure against the single currency. Cable traded down to levels last seen in 1985. Investors across the globe have been dumping sterling based assets in favour of more secure assets. Fridays GDP data officially confirmed the UK recession.

All eyes are going to be on the FOMC meeting this week, where the US benchmark rate is expected to be kept on hold, talk of quantitative easing may put some pressure on the US dollar.

Monday 26 January 2009, 11:26am

Sterling was sold through the 2001 low of $1.3685 yesterday and traded down to $1.3616, its lowest level against the dollar in over 23 years. Later in the day traders took advantage of the oversold pound and pushed it back up above $1.4. Sterling has been struggling since the beginning of the week, being pushed to new lows each day. Investors have little hope for the bailout package introduced by the government for the banks and the economy.

Thursday 22 January 2009, 10:43am

After a horrific day for UK banking stock yesterday, traders have failed to support sterling against the US dollar. The pressure is back on the pound, this morning cable has traded at a 7 year low. Against the Japanese Yen, Sterling is trading at a fresh all-time low. Investors around the world are beginning to cut exposure to the weakening UK economy and its distressed banking sector

Tuesday 20 January 2009, 10:50am

The US dollar declined on Friday as risk appetite crept back into the financial markets. This morning sterling is looking exposed on Bailout plans by the UK government. Over the weekend the UK government has announced a £200bn package to guarantee lending, yet another banking bailout plan.

Since early November the pound began to form a range against the US dollar between the 1.45-1.55 regions. It is interesting to note that traders have attempted to push sterling lower on three separate occasions since the early November low of 1.4558. Each time sterling has fought back into the range, the lowest traded level over the recent weeks was 1.4351. From a technical point of view it looks like a bottom is in the making, below the 1.46 level it seems traders are keen to buy back into Sterling.

Monday 19 January 2009, 11:49am

The European Central Bank has cut its benchmark interest rate to 2%, a record low. The deepening recession has been pressuring policy makers, it is expected the central bank will cut further in March to 1.5%.

The economies of the 16 euro nations are deteriorating faster than the ECB anticipated. The recession is now expected to last much longer than initially thought. The ECB will have to constantly trim interest rates at least for the first half of the year.

Thursday 15 January 2009, 03:15pm

Sterling came under pressure yesterday against both the US dollar and the Euro, as the UK released weak economic data in the retail and housing sector. The number of properties being sold across the UK has reached a record low, according to RICS. As sterling came under pressure, the Euro began to take back some of it’s loses against the pound. With the ECB rate decision looming, sterling may have a chance to bounce back.

Tuesday 13 January 2009, 11:52am

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